The massive flooding in Houston was not because a run of the mill hurricane occurred, it was because a big but not unusual hurricane stalled near the coast over a populated area for days. A very unusual event.
I'm not sure what model predicted 6 feet of sea level rise in 50 years, but that is likely a worst case outcome and very improbable. The few times I have tracked down these statements (no reference provided) I have found them to be labeled "extreme" scenarios. Once you find these extreme scenarios you can compare their expected SLR in 2021 and compare that to the actual SLR of 2021 and find these models are already off track by 2X or more.
SLR has been increasing at about a rate of inch per decade and holding pretty steady for at least 30 years according to satellite altimetry. In order to hit 6 feet in 50 years that rate would need to change by approx. 10X starting tomorrow. It's just not very viable, depends on speculative physical events, and is media hyperbole.
Which brings me to the actual point, you don't need to spend billions today to address a speculative additional 6 feet of SLR by 2070. It can be monitored and if the worst case occurs, spend the money and build the defenses. Otherwise plan for 2-3 feet of SLR by 2100.
What most people also don't realize is that coastal communities are worried about 10 to 20 feet of SLR in hours, not centuries. Their building codes are for hurricane storm surge. SLR makes these events cumulative, but coastal communities have been planning for these things for decades. Ultimately the coastal owners should bear the cost of increased infrastructure and insurance.
I'm not sure what model predicted 6 feet of sea level rise in 50 years, but that is likely a worst case outcome and very improbable. The few times I have tracked down these statements (no reference provided) I have found them to be labeled "extreme" scenarios. Once you find these extreme scenarios you can compare their expected SLR in 2021 and compare that to the actual SLR of 2021 and find these models are already off track by 2X or more.
SLR has been increasing at about a rate of inch per decade and holding pretty steady for at least 30 years according to satellite altimetry. In order to hit 6 feet in 50 years that rate would need to change by approx. 10X starting tomorrow. It's just not very viable, depends on speculative physical events, and is media hyperbole.
Which brings me to the actual point, you don't need to spend billions today to address a speculative additional 6 feet of SLR by 2070. It can be monitored and if the worst case occurs, spend the money and build the defenses. Otherwise plan for 2-3 feet of SLR by 2100.
What most people also don't realize is that coastal communities are worried about 10 to 20 feet of SLR in hours, not centuries. Their building codes are for hurricane storm surge. SLR makes these events cumulative, but coastal communities have been planning for these things for decades. Ultimately the coastal owners should bear the cost of increased infrastructure and insurance.
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