Blue Origin aims to land next New Glenn booster, then reuse it for Moon mission

"We fully intend to recover the New Glenn first stage on this next launch."

See full article...

 

[Fatesrider]

Pat Remias, Blue Origin's vice president of space systems development, said Thursday that the company is confident in nailing the landing on the second flight of New Glenn. That launch, with NASA's next set of Mars probes, is likely to occur no earlier than November from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.

I read "November" and it being BO, my brain immediately thought "next year", DESPITE the article describing it as next month.

When you take 25 YEARS to iterate to the point you have a rocket doing an actual orbital mission (and presumably being paid for it), that kind of brain fart is probably relatively common...

 

[Old_Fogie_Late_Bloomer]

Blue Origin, owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos, nicknamed the booster stage for the next flight "Never Tell Me The Odds." It's not quite fair to say the company's leadership has gone all-in with their bet that the next launch will result in a successful booster landing. But the difference between a smooth touchdown and another crash landing will have a significant effect on Bezos's Moon program.

That's because the third New Glenn launch, penciled in for no earlier than January of next year, will reuse the same booster flown on the upcoming second flight.

That...is a bold move. But who knows, maybe getting rid of over 10% of their workforce and demanding everyone go back to the office will pay off for them.

"Never Tell Me The Odds", well, I certainly can't do that, since I don't know what they are. But I am not overly optimistic.

 

[dread pirate nancy]

OT... I read about the first landing. Could you imagine staying up with Walter Cronkite for those days..

This is how Cronkite signed off on July 24, after four hours covering the splashdown of the astronauts:

"Well, man's dream and a nation's pledge have now been fulfilled. The lunar age has begun. And with it, mankind's march outward into that endless sky from this small planet circling an insignificant star in a minor solar system on the fringe of a seemingly infinite universe. The path ahead will be long; it's going to be arduous; it's going to be pretty doggone costly. We may hope, but we should not believe, in the excitement of today, that the next trip or the ones to follow are going to be particularly easy. But we have begun with 'a small step for a man, a giant leap for mankind,' in Armstrong's unforgettable words.

"In these eight days of the Apollo 11 mission the world was witness to not only the triumph of technology, but to the strength of man's resolve and the persistence of his imagination. Through all times the moon has endured out there, pale and distant, determining the tides and tugging at the heart, a symbol, a beacon, a goal. Now man has prevailed. He's landed on the moon, he's stabbed into its crust; he's stolen some of its soil to bring back in a tiny treasure ship to perhaps unlock some of its secrets.

"The date's now indelible. It's going to be remembered as long as man survives — July 20, 1969 — the day a man reached and walked on the moon. The least of us is improved by the things done by the best of us. Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins are the best of us, and they've led us further and higher than we ever imagined we were likely to go."

 

[jhodge]

The very best of luck to them. I have no basis to evaluate their chances, but it can only be good for the entire space launch market to have some credible competition.

 

[nhaflinger001]

Not to be a downer, but the first booster successfully recovered will be torn apart by engineers to get a better idea where they can cut weight (among other findings). There is no chance that it will ever fly again, let alone a few months later.

They literally stated that is not what they are planning.

 

[lurknomore]

I know that they've been landing a lot of suborbital first stages .... but given the order of magnitude step, they'd better have a solid plan for the highly likely landing failure to just be a data point, not a major delay.

 

[wagnerrp]

They literally stated that is not what they are planning.

Which just sounds foolhardy. The only reason you wouldn't tear it down is because you think your current vehicle is "perfect", and doesn't need improvement. Of course it does. The last one didn't even manage a relight.

Or, they're trying to hit a launch schedule, and their current production rate requires they reuse it, or fall behind.

Neither possibility is a good one.

Also, they said they would make their first launch before 2020, and then in 2020, and then in 2021, and then in 2022, and the....

 

[tRexx]

Blue Origin sounds incredibly optimistic. New Glenn is not just a larger New Shephard. I certainly hope the third booster is well along in construction.

 

[Nalyd]

OT... I read about the first landing. Could you imagine staying up with Walter Cronkite for those days..

This is how Cronkite signed off on July 24, after four hours covering the splashdown of the astronauts:

"Well, man's dream and a nation's pledge have now been fulfilled. The lunar age has begun. And with it, mankind's march outward into that endless sky from this small planet circling an insignificant star in a minor solar system on the fringe of a seemingly infinite universe. The path ahead will be long; it's going to be arduous; it's going to be pretty doggone costly. We may hope, but we should not believe, in the excitement of today, that the next trip or the ones to follow are going to be particularly easy. But we have begun with 'a small step for a man, a giant leap for mankind,' in Armstrong's unforgettable words.

"In these eight days of the Apollo 11 mission the world was witness to not only the triumph of technology, but to the strength of man's resolve and the persistence of his imagination. Through all times the moon has endured out there, pale and distant, determining the tides and tugging at the heart, a symbol, a beacon, a goal. Now man has prevailed. He's landed on the moon, he's stabbed into its crust; he's stolen some of its soil to bring back in a tiny treasure ship to perhaps unlock some of its secrets.

"The date's now indelible. It's going to be remembered as long as man survives — July 20, 1969 — the day a man reached and walked on the moon. The least of us is improved by the things done by the best of us. Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins are the best of us, and they've led us further and higher than we ever imagined we were likely to go."

It is sad to me. Cronkite was mainstream, trusted, and this sign off would be comprehensible and inspiring. Can you imagine any of today’s news heads speaking with this level of sophistication?

The lowest common denominator has dropped dramatically in the last couple decades.

 

[multimediavt]

And I didn't read a word about what Plan B is for the third flight should this booster not be recovered. I guess it's wait for the next booster to be certified and ready for launch? That piece of information was also not in the article, nor shared by BO I am guessing. (i.e., when the next booster would be ready regardless of flight two recovery success.)

Sure hope the Old Space, "We took so long because it's gotta work from the first try at everything," mantra works out. Otherwise, [ shrug ] I guess. Hope that works out better for BO than it is for Boeing and its space contracts, presently.

 

[stefan_lec]

Based on all the excitement SpaceX has had with getting booster engines to reliably relight, if I had to bet on it, I'd put my money on the booster failing during reignition again this time, though perhaps with a different failure mode. Starts but RUD's due to problems with fuel pressure, maybe?

I'd put their odds of a successful landing higher than Falcon 9's at the same place in its campaign. I doubt it will take 20 launches to get to the first booster landing, either. If nothing else, New Glenn probably has a lot more margin to play around with, both because it was designed for this particular form of reuse before it entered production, and because it's just plain bigger.

If Blue gets the payload successfully on its way snd at least gets to attempt a booster landing again, they're still in a pretty good place even if the landing fails.

There's still a chance they'll get it to land though! That would be super impressive if they pull it off. Will definitely be watching this launch, rooting for booster landings is fun.

 

[Old_Fogie_Late_Bloomer]

Or, they're trying to hit a launch schedule, and their current production rate requires they reuse it, or fall behind.

Guarantee you that's it. I bet they're really hoping to be able to reuse most of those engines.

 

[blackhawk887]

I think they get this one back.

No way they refly it in 3 months though. Maybe in 6 months.

 

[Yui]

They literally stated that is not what they are planning.

Yes, they say that they will reuse it and within months, but Blue Origin says a lot of things. Do they always keep their word?

BO can reuse some engines, and almost certainly will. But the structure itself? After the engineers have had their way with it, that thing will only be fit for a museum. The data is too invaluable not to acquire.

SpaceX's first booster to land ended up in Hawthorne:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/20/spacex-puts-historic-flown-rocket-on-permanent-display/

 

[Smartyflix]

It is sad to me. Cronkite was mainstream, trusted, and this sign off would be comprehensible and inspiring. Can you imagine any of today’s news heads speaking with this level of sophistication?

The lowest common denominator has dropped dramatically in the last couple decades.

"How do we even know this so-called 'rocket' even landed on the moon?! According to trusted YouTuber SpaceTruther420 there isn't even credible evidence that the Earth is ROUND! How can this rocket even launch from a flat Earth?! I'll go over the real facts, but first, a word from our sponsor Patriot Gold..."

 

[OVDC]

"How do we even know this so-called 'rocket' even landed on the moon?! According to trusted YouTuber SpaceTruther420 there isn't even credible evidence that the Earth is ROUND! How can this rocket even launch from a flat Earth?! I'll go over the real facts, but first, a word from our sponsor Patriot Gold..."

"I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time-when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness. The dumbing down of America is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30-second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudo-science and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance." -Carl Sagan, A Demon-Haunted World, 1995.

 

[GalacticPlesiosaur]

This feels like a classic example of putting all your eggs in one spacecraft. I guess we'll see if their strategy of "spend years and $$$$ engineering the thing to work the first second time" pays off!

 

[EggheadsResist!]

OT... I read about the first landing. Could you imagine staying up with Walter Cronkite for those days..

This is how Cronkite signed off on July 24, after four hours covering the splashdown of the astronauts:

"Well, man's dream and a nation's pledge have now been fulfilled. The lunar age has begun. And with it, mankind's march outward into that endless sky from this small planet circling an insignificant star in a minor solar system on the fringe of a seemingly infinite universe. The path ahead will be long; it's going to be arduous; it's going to be pretty doggone costly. We may hope, but we should not believe, in the excitement of today, that the next trip or the ones to follow are going to be particularly easy. But we have begun with 'a small step for a man, a giant leap for mankind,' in Armstrong's unforgettable words.

"In these eight days of the Apollo 11 mission the world was witness to not only the triumph of technology, but to the strength of man's resolve and the persistence of his imagination. Through all times the moon has endured out there, pale and distant, determining the tides and tugging at the heart, a symbol, a beacon, a goal. Now man has prevailed. He's landed on the moon, he's stabbed into its crust; he's stolen some of its soil to bring back in a tiny treasure ship to perhaps unlock some of its secrets.

"The date's now indelible. It's going to be remembered as long as man survives — July 20, 1969 — the day a man reached and walked on the moon. The least of us is improved by the things done by the best of us. Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins are the best of us, and they've led us further and higher than we ever imagined we were likely to go."

I don't need to imagine it, I just need to remember.. and thank you for reminding me how amazing it was to watch all those year ago.

 

[Veritas super omens]

Jackson Browne had an album titled Late for the Sky. Somehow that came to mind when first hearing about this.

 

[Steve austin]

OT... I read about the first landing. Could you imagine staying up with Walter Cronkite for those days..

This is how Cronkite signed off on July 24, after four hours covering the splashdown of the astronauts:

"Well, man's dream and a nation's pledge have now been fulfilled. The lunar age has begun. And with it, mankind's march outward into that endless sky from this small planet circling an insignificant star in a minor solar system on the fringe of a seemingly infinite universe. The path ahead will be long; it's going to be arduous; it's going to be pretty doggone costly. We may hope, but we should not believe, in the excitement of today, that the next trip or the ones to follow are going to be particularly easy. But we have begun with 'a small step for a man, a giant leap for mankind,' in Armstrong's unforgettable words.

"In these eight days of the Apollo 11 mission the world was witness to not only the triumph of technology, but to the strength of man's resolve and the persistence of his imagination. Through all times the moon has endured out there, pale and distant, determining the tides and tugging at the heart, a symbol, a beacon, a goal. Now man has prevailed. He's landed on the moon, he's stabbed into its crust; he's stolen some of its soil to bring back in a tiny treasure ship to perhaps unlock some of its secrets.

"The date's now indelible. It's going to be remembered as long as man survives — July 20, 1969 — the day a man reached and walked on the moon. The least of us is improved by the things done by the best of us. Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins are the best of us, and they've led us further and higher than we ever imagined we were likely to go."

I’d guess that a fair number of Arsians (me being one) did exactly that. Cronkite’s coverage was quite good.

 

[henryhbk]

I’m confused, they deliberately have a slow booster production line? To do what? Motivate the engineers to make it work or bankrupt the company? Or is that just cover for “we built a terribly slow process, and now we’re claiming that was strategic?”

One thing in their chance of reuse was SpaceX was doing everything for tho first time, whereas BO knows it can be done, which mean you mostly know what red herrings to avoid…

 

[DougF]

Everyone can relax. I’m positive BO has learned all they need to know about landing an orbital class booster from watching “How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster” and the 17 examples of all possible failure modes. So, no worries!

EDIT: /s/j

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

I’m confused, they deliberately have a slow booster production line? To do what? Motivate the engineers to make it work or bankrupt the company? Or is that just cover for “we built a terribly slow process, and now we’re claiming that was strategic?”

One thing in their chance of reuse was SpaceX was doing everything for tho first time, whereas BO knows it can be done, which mean you mostly know what red herrings to avoid…

They saw no point in creating a high-cadence production line for Boosters, because their long-term vision does not involve a high Booster turnover: they're aiming for high reuse, instead. Of course, in the near term that does put them in a bit of a pickle...

 

[hark]

Stephen, thanks a lot for quite tasty Friday morning piece.
Now I have many more reasons to root for BO to nail the landing.
Looking forward to the launch date!

 

[uhuznaa]

They saw no point in creating a high-cadence production line for Boosters, because their long-term vision does not involve a high Booster turnover: they're aiming for high reuse, instead. Of course, in the near term that does put them in a bit of a pickle...

Whereas SpaceX aims at both reuse and high cadence production... Of course they need lots of launches for Starlink anyway, so this is easier to justify.

 

[herm1]

Wishing them the best of luck and every thing goes well.

 

[Psiren]

I for one, wish them luck. I recall watching SpaceX's first attempt to catch the first Starship booster, thinking it would all go horribly wrong, but they succeeded. Yes, they had an awful lot of experience with the Falcon boosters to draw upon, but it was an entirely different ship. So if they can do it, I think it's possible for Blue Origin to do it too. They also have experience of New Shepard to draw upon. I'm not sure on the likelihood of success, but I won't write them out just yet.

 

[McTurkey]

They saw no point in creating a high-cadence production line for Boosters, because their long-term vision does not involve a high Booster turnover: they're aiming for high reuse, instead. Of course, in the near term that does put them in a bit of a pickle...

It also puts them in a pickle every time they discover a new failure mode, too.

There's a whole lot of brining going on at Blue Origin, I'd say.

 

[fenris_uy]

Whereas SpaceX aims at both reuse and high cadence production... Of course they need lots of launches for Starlink anyway, so this is easier to justify.

Did SpaceX had a high cadence of Falcon 9 first stages at the start? For v1.0 it looks like the cadence was 1 booster every 6 months on average.

 

[blackhawk887]

SpaceX's first booster to land ended up in Hawthorne:

Because SpaceX had a barn full of newer and better boosters waiting to fly. They intentionally expended a bunch of Block 4 Falcons.

Blue doesn't work that way. If they don't recover and reuse this booster, they won't fly again for probably 9 months.

 

[supermarkert]

They're saying they plan on their second launch in November, then refurbish the booster to launch again within 90 days for their third launch. But they also say they plan to launch no earlier than January of next year. Math doesn't seem to check out.
Am I missing something?

 

[Neal McQuaid]

This has been mentioned in other articles with respect to landers toppling over, height, etc.
seeing the image of the Apollo lander above, it seems wide to account for exactly that issue. What is it about modern engineering that we’re not taking that approach, or is it purely just a limitation of the current size of the rocket the lander is being carried on?

 

[fenris_uy]

They're saying they plan on their second launch in November, then refurbish the booster to launch again within 90 days for their third launch. But they also say they plan to launch no earlier than January of next year. Math doesn't seem to check out.
Am I missing something?

Is November 2025 + 90 days before or after January 2026? If it's after, then it's no earlier than January, right? Math appears to check out.

 

[Jack56]

In the schematic comparing the three landers, look at their widths vs height and the size of the landing pads. What does that tell you about their relative chances of a stable landing, given Intuitive Machine's experience (twice)? Firefly's Blue Ghost, which landed successfully btw, was wider than it was tall. Just saying.

 

[YetAnotherBoris]

They're saying they plan on their second launch in November, then refurbish the booster to launch again within 90 days for their third launch. But they also say they plan to launch no earlier than January of next year. Math doesn't seem to check out.
Am I missing something?

"Within" 90 days could also mean less than 90 days. That said, if they launch in early November and then again in late January, that would be pretty close to 90 days anyway. On the third hand, both the November and January 'dates' are NET ('no earlier than'), so either or both could easily slip. And on the last hand, AFAIK Blue Origin still hopes (so might have a small chance) to attempt the Escapade launch in late October.

 

[EllPeaTea]

This has been mentioned in other articles with respect to landers toppling over, height, etc.
seeing the image of the Apollo lander above, it seems wide to account for exactly that issue. What is it about modern engineering that we’re not taking that approach, or is it purely just a limitation of the current size of the rocket the lander is being carried on?

It's mass budget. All of the current generation of CLPS landers are severely mass constrained. All their landing gear is fixed (the LEM had legs that unfolded after is was extracted from the S-IVB). The lack of mass (and subsequent amount of propellant) means they have to do very aggressive horizontal approaches, which means they don't get a good lock on the lunar surface early enough in the descent profile. The LEM was able to do a very conservative vertical approach as it had plenty of fuel.

 

[supermarkert]

Is November 2025 + 90 days before or after January 2026? If it's after, then it's no earlier than January, right? Math appears to check out.

It also means January is impossible. That's like saying the next Artemis mission to the moon will launch no earlier than tomorrow.