If he thinks he is dead either way, it's no longer a question of 'suicidality'. Instead, it becomes a question of how one wants to die. As a result, it's entirely possible that he might hit that damn button even if he isn't suicidal.
Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.
- Thread starter Slothur the Hasty
- Start date
If he thinks he is dead either way, it's no longer a question of 'suicidality'. Instead, it becomes a question of how one wants to die. As a result, it's entirely possible that he might hit that damn button even if he isn't suicidal.
ok to delve further: the country is awash with MANPADs? the Ukranian airforce is going to be defacto older than the Russian (i.e. less shiny)? Putin not wanting to risk the newer jets? or.. or..?
Russia screwed themselves out of air superiority on day one when they failed to knock out Ukraine's air bases and air defenses. It's not clear whether they just cheaped out or whether they actually don't have that many missiles.
I guess the Rouble will be rubbing shoulders with the Bolivar before this is over.
I don't think I've ever been refused a $100 bill. A 7-11 or similar might have a sign that says they won't take them on the door, but any place that doesn't have that will take them in my experience. Now a $2 bill? Yea, people think they are fake for some reason.
NATO doesn’t have to respond with nuclear weapons and I certainly never suggested any such thing. NATO could eliminate the Russian conventional military as a force able to project power in a couple days. The Kremlin, with Putin in it, could be leveled before radars in Moscow pick up the B-2.
Unless you’re ready to cede Eastern Europe to Putin over nuclear bluffing, we’re going to get there. And, no, the Russians will not respond with nukes after that, because they’d like Russia to still exist the following day.
Oh, no… better let Hitler take Czechoslovakia, otherwise he’ll start WWII. Guess what…
Not altogether clear to me. They're still regularly downing missiles and aircraft. Not seeing much indication of Ukraine doing much with air-to-air though. MANPADs aren't much good against high altitude flights, but if there's still other anti-air capability high altitude is probably too dangerous, so I would guess a mix with large error bars.
He's deposed by domestic influences, and then commits "suicide", Mishustin takes over, the oligarchs task him with rebuilding relations with Western interests in a less bellicose manner, so Russia can go back to the business of... business... without drowning it in a bunch of vintage former-Soviet jingoism.
Something along those lines.
Putin has to eat, shit, and sleep sometime.
Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine is set to receive some Mig-29s from Poland, Bulgaria, and/or Slovakia. Although I wonder if Ukraine has the pilots.
Well the problem is that under this concept of “sanity”, using a small nuke against a country that has no nukes, could also be “sane” depending on circumstances.
I think if it starts heading in that direction, he’ll use biggest conventional weapons first, which so far he did not.
Perhaps some little green airmen will hitchhike on the planes
Compensate those private companies with seized Russian assets. I wonder what the balance sheet would look like in the end.
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I went to have a look through a number of Russian forums - not news sites, just communities like this one. It's fascinating how different a war they're seeing from their side. Russian army is successfully executing large-scale encirclements, losses are minor and inconsequential, ukrainian nazis are dying en masse, running out of fuel and ammunition, shooting each other in panic, Zelensky has already tried to capitulate three times and was thwarted by the evil westerners, the sanctions are only encouraging Russia to develop into a strong and prosperous autarky, if the West makes any sudden moves they'll be countered with nuclear ballistic missiles... again, this is not official news, this is what normal people are discussing among themselves.
On the last point I don't think that's true, Russian low frequency radar would detect even a stealth aircraft. And if the Kremlin was leveled, that likely would prompt nuclear retaliation anyway.
It would be tricky to finesse, there'd have to be proportionate response. A no-fly zone over Ukraine might happen for example.
Hm. No, I don't think so. If Russia can't force a capitulation Ukraine is going to end up aligned to the EU/NATO anyway.
Seems like the wrong move to go all Treaty of Versailles on them.
Directly attacking Russian troops is one line and directly attacking Russian soil is another
The former being something that should happen only under active provocation and the latter hopefully need never happen
Off the top of my head, list of dictators deposed who didn’t commit suicide:
Executed:
Hussein
Mussolini
Ceausescu
Qaddafi
Tojo
Deposed, not executed:
Mubarak
Papadopolous
Duvalier
Amin
Milosevic
Pahlavi
Ben Ali
Pinochet
Dictators who committed suicide:
Hitler
Oh, yes. Dictators are known for their suicidal tendencies.
There are always more pilots than planes, at the very least because of promotions/retirements. Those
Guys might be out of practice, but what’s the alternative?
But the argument the “he’s crazy” guys are making us that Putin will use nukes rather than allow Ukraine to side with EU/NATO. You can’t have it both ways.
Comments allegedly from the leader of the pro-Russian insurgency in 2014: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 0170821632
Quote is in Russian in an image, I got seemingly legible results from an OCR website but maybe someone (Barmaglot?) can validate?
The translation I get for "шапкозакидательством"/"shapkozakidatelstvo" is "capping". No idea what that means in context.
Quote is in Russian in an image, I got seemingly legible results from an OCR website but maybe someone (Barmaglot?) can validate?
- And now about an even sadder thing:
The offensive on the "main eastern front" is stalling due to the COMPLETE ABSENCE of the SECOND ECHELON. The territory traversed is not
controlled, road interchanges and important points are not put under control, garrisons and large enemy groups are virtually
ignored. At the same time, the rear columns move without the slightest protection on the unprotected territory, as if it were some kind of Ryazan
region. Which has already led to the defeat and even complete destruction of several such columns. And the enemy does not doze and "media squeezes
everything" from each such "micro-victory". On the face of a major miscalculation, probably caused by an incorrect assessment of the situation and the subsequent
"shapkozakidatelstvo".
The translation I get for "шапкозакидательством"/"shapkozakidatelstvo" is "capping". No idea what that means in context.
Not sure of the specifics of that argument, that's not the case I'm making. I think Putin's nuclear scenario is nuclear weapons to forestall a humiliating defeat.
Good to see confirmation of what I think we've all been seeing: the Russian armored columns are going gung-ho as if they were in a combined-arms push, but all by themselves and with no-one cleaning up their backs. It's astonishingly stupid.
Off the top of my head, list of dictators deposed who didn’t commit suicide:
Executed:
Hussein
Mussolini
Ceausescu
Qaddafi
Tojo
Deposed, not executed:
Mubarak
Papadopolous
Duvalier
Amin
Milosevic
Pahlavi
Ben Ali
Pinochet
Dictators who committed suicide:
Hitler
Oh, yes. Dictators are known for their suicidal tendencies.
If you're going to include Hitler, then you should also count at least Antonescu (executed) and Horthy (died in exile). Pinochet's case is somewhat more complex than most as well, and if you include him, then Galtieri should also be on the list, along with Juan Peron. Ferdinand Macros is another name that comes to mind, dying in exile in USA a few years after being deposed.
Looks correct, "шапкозакидательство" in this context would be an attempt to win a war by throwing your hats at someone. Presumably meaning a strategy that can only work with extremely superior forces and no resistance.
He might also think he'll be sheltered (both literally & figuratively) from the resulting fallout (both literally & figuratively), or any other pile of improbable nonsense. There are a limitless number of both practical and delusional rationales Putin could contrive for himself to justify whatever the hell he wants to justify to himself.
The question is only whether Putin can convince himself, or has convinced himself, that nuclear warfare is any part of the solution space for his ambitions. Not whether or not he's clinically suicidal and sees his actions as acting on that personal despair.
edit: Which was my entire point originally about not confusing shrewdness for sanity. I have no doubt that Putin fastidiously calculates and manipulates to pursue his ambitions. If his ambitions and associated calculations abide leveraging nuclear arms to achieve them, then the fact that it seems "insane" to anyone who's not-Putin to do something which would more than likely result in turning Moscow into a fresh pane of glass, is irrelevant. It might seem perfectly reasonable to Putin, and Putin is the one making the decision. Unless his chain of command deserts such an order were he to give it. I'm more convinced that Russia wouldn't wittingly deploy nuclear weapons because the chain of command would contradict such an order from Putin than I am convinced at this point Putin wouldn't give such an order.
The question is only whether Putin can convince himself, or has convinced himself, that nuclear warfare is any part of the solution space for his ambitions. Not whether or not he's clinically suicidal and sees his actions as acting on that personal despair.
edit: Which was my entire point originally about not confusing shrewdness for sanity. I have no doubt that Putin fastidiously calculates and manipulates to pursue his ambitions. If his ambitions and associated calculations abide leveraging nuclear arms to achieve them, then the fact that it seems "insane" to anyone who's not-Putin to do something which would more than likely result in turning Moscow into a fresh pane of glass, is irrelevant. It might seem perfectly reasonable to Putin, and Putin is the one making the decision. Unless his chain of command deserts such an order were he to give it. I'm more convinced that Russia wouldn't wittingly deploy nuclear weapons because the chain of command would contradict such an order from Putin than I am convinced at this point Putin wouldn't give such an order.
I don't think there is a direct English equivalent, but it means that we're so much stronger than the enemy that it's enough for us to throw our hats at them (shapka = hat, kidat' = to throw) to win. This image was used, unironically, in late Russian Empire propaganda, but following the massive failures of Russo-Japanese War and the Great War it has become a purely derogatory term, as in being deluded into an assumption of an easy and effortless victory, whereas the reality is anything but.
Exactly. To be specific, escalation of use of large conventional munitions (the above mentioned TOS-1 aka "buratino" which was seen there), eventually running out of those and either giving up or escalating to small nukes.
With the small nukes the issue is that USSR made them for a specific reason, namely nuking countries that can't nuke back, and Putin is thoroughly cargo-cult-ing Soviet doctrine and lacks any embryonic checks and balances USSR had. He's also old and doesn't look like he's in good health at all. For not being an alcoholic he looks quite bad, I'd say. Some serious health issues on top of all that.
Apropos of nothing else, I love seeing idioms in other languages and how they evolve and translate. "Throwing your hat at them" as a sign of unearned arrogance visually translates in a way the words don't.
Ah, thanks for the detailed explanation. Idioms are always tricky that way, especially in machine translation...
Dictators who committed suicide:
Hitler
Oh, yes. Dictators are known for their suicidal tendencies.
Hitler wasn't suicidal either. That was sort of my point. Once you think you are dead either way, it's no longer suicide and suicidal tendencies have shit to do with it. Just because a cornered rat decides how he wants to die doesn't imply the rat is suicidal.
I predict he will try to employ one. 5-10kt yield airburst for maximum pressure. Not over Kiev but some other city as a sign of desperation and hoping everyone gets spooked. This is why Belarus is now signed as Nuclear capable. He will try and fire from there.
Word is he is utterly furious and he is close to just losing it completely. Hopefully he is removed from power before he is able to proceed in this destructive path into the abyss.
BP is already abandoning their 20% ownership in (Russian state oil company) Rosneft - taking a $25B writeoff.
Unless backed up by rock-solid proof, any 'words' going around these days are someone's personal fantasy.
No, it will never capitulate. If they kill the president he will become a martyr and it will look even worse for Putin. I saw a video of someone Punching a Russian soldier, the dude had no gun so he ran up to him and started beating down on the guy. The rifle almost fired into his foot.
These people are gonna fight till the last one. Russia better just pack it in.
Bold mine. I think this is completely wrong. I don't agree that systemically seizing the assets of the people you conquer and using them for your own purposes is anything other then kleptocratic. The Nazis starved and enslaved many of those people they didn't kill in the east (and some in the west too).
But you should remember that the looting happened at home too. The Nazis passed laws that turned their "own people" (whom they regarded as subhuman or vermin) into "not" and looted their assets as a matter of official policy.
There were also kleptocrats at the highest levels. Hermann Göering famously looted art from all over Europe for his personal collection.
I doubt he'll do it out of the blue though. He hadn't yet used all of the conventional shit.
But yeah with US having used 2 nukes in Japan, he probably feels he can get 25..30 kilotons of free nuking there. IDK what soviet low yield militarized stuff is, but ussr had "peaceful" mini-h-bombs , like 15 kt but only 0.3 kt fission, further blurring the line between a bunch of big conventional weapons and one nuke. Much like US in 1960s, they had some bugfuck crazy ideas about role of nukes in the future of warfare.
Backchannel communications with Oligarchs and leadership that This is a Putin problem not a Russia problem, let them know that if Putin is out of the picture and they pull out of Ukraine then they can have business as usual back.
I wonder if the willingness of the western world to compromise the recovery of their own economies in the midst of a global economic crisis just to sanction Russia into an economic black hole has opened any eyes in China regarding the consequences of seizing Taiwan.
It is a bit puzzling with the Russian cruise and ballistic missiles and general advantage in numbers of aircraft overall. I would have expected them to make a better effort to wipe out the Ukrainian air force on the ground during the first night of the war. Maybe the Russians were over confident in the abilities of the Ukrainian military as well as their own abilities to decapitate the Ukrainian government? Wonder if US/UK intelligence played a part too in helping the Ukrainian military minimize the impact of the initial attacks, such as moving the aircraft to safer locations at the last minute?
Before Xi have taken power, I would say that China would haver never used military to seize Taiwan. I still think it is unlikely but I am not 100& sure anymore.