OK. Fine. I guess you have had multiple posts mocking the supposedly exaggerated threat.
Other than that you have done little to refute the reality of Russian aggression unfolding in real time right now
Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.
- Thread starter Slothur the Hasty
- Start date
OK. Fine. I guess you have had multiple posts mocking the supposedly exaggerated threat.
Other than that you have done little to refute the reality of Russian aggression unfolding in real time right now
Right, which is why I was responding to the person who said they wanted DPRK level sanctions.
Then Wheels of Confusion talked about the breadbasket of Europe which I misinterpreted and then got clarified.
This thread moves very fast.
I want them cut off from the internet, banking, ban all kinds of trade with them, completely isolate them in all possible ways, to say that this isn't OK, and hopefully see the Navalny's of Russia start taking to the streets. Maybe not DPRK, but Cuba? or what we generally do with other countries that behave in such way.
As for Ukraine - Arm them to their teeth and then some.
Russian troops are in the self-declared separatist zones(countries?)
So yeah... I probably "would do little to refute" that, lol.
So do you genuinely agree with Putin?
I mean with your China schtick you can at least pretend they have something good to offer the world as long as you dont look at the ugly bits. I'm not really sure how anyone makes a coherent defense of Russia
I mean honestly, do you KNOW why the US won't deal with Russia like we've "dealt with" Cuba?
Because we'd be cutting off our nose to spite our face.
Despite arcite's masturbatory obsession with cutting Russia out of SWIFT there is no appetite for that because it would fuck the "rules based international order" that the US has been in control of since the end of WW2.
The US and its allies know that the US dollar is fragile and once it's no longer the de facto reserve currency the US is kind of fucked.
So you can jerk it to Russia being hit with those kinds of sanctions all you want, but that time passed about 20 years ago.
Much of the West (to varying degrees) still seems to be clueless about it.
Why is that? Russia is a minor power, at best economically since it's economy is the size of Italy. It would not affect the dollar at all, but they behave as if they were a huge power. And since Russia is making their own rules, i am not sure why we should adhere to the "rules based international order".
Who is going to change to renminbi ? The USD and the Euro is out, so what's left?
God... are you being serious?
No I don't agree with Putin's ideology. I agree with the reality that troops are in the separatist region.
I mean that is literally the United States (though the US has FAR more ugly bits and it's not even close).
If you want me to explain how anti-Imperialism makes for strange bedfellows feel free to take it up in the Marxist country thread.
I won't hold my breath.
Made in Hurry wrote:
Energy is why it's a major power, that and its military+nukes.
I used "rules based international order" to make fun of the current world order in which the US does whatever the fuck it wants and then says that it is "order".
But yes, eventually the yuan.
Russia and China have already made several agreements to be conducted in Euros and the EU is divided enough to keep that up for the next decade or so that it'll take for the US dollar to be dethroned.
Energy is why it's a major power, that and its military+nukes.
I used "rules based international order" to make fun of the current world order in which the US does whatever the fuck it wants and then says that it is "order".
But yes, eventually the yuan.
Russia and China have already made several agreements to be conducted in Euros and the EU is divided enough to keep that up for the next decade or so that it'll take for the US dollar to be dethroned.
Thats doublespeak. Those are part of Ukraine unless you accept the Russian narrative
Have you actually read the Minsk agreements? Serious question because based on your response it appears that you haven't.
The agreement didn't move the Russia-Ukraine border. Russia just crossed it.
Further claiming that a previous agreement made in response to Russian-sponsored aggression somehow legitimizes more Russian aggression is interesting reasoning
So DPRK is a major power then based on your reasoning? Do you think Russia will be able to trade in Euro now? The UK even made preliminary sanctions against 5 banks. I am sure the US will add a few more to the list as a "wave of sanctions" have been announced. I am just hoping the Swiss will add to that, and freeze all assets.
The ones doing whatever the fuck it wants is currently Russia.
I see Moscow has clarified that it recognises the original boundaries of both region, which includes those currently under Ukrainian control and the port of Mauripol. Taking control of that will be spicy 
Consolidating Russian units in separatist regions is wise maneuver. It more closely surrounds what's left of Ukraine reducing how far Russian units must advance the first day. The modest prior bombardments will be nothing compared to open invasion. Russian doctrine employs UAV spotters (cheap, expendable, shooting at them reveals the shooter's location for area bombardment).
See page 375 for spotting methods:
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals ... artles.pdf
While units can move, fixed targets cannot and any fixed resistance be lavishly bombarded. Smoke etc don't interfere with artillery shwacking a designated grid square.
Russian Airborne commanders will rightly want to put their modernized forces to work. Unlike ground operations constrained by terrain airborne targets aren't predictable. Airborne forces are extremely vulnerable to MANPADS, flak and everything else so they must generally assault less-defended areas then fight to their targets. They may drop behind Ukrainian units previously found and fixed by ground assault then link with advancing mechanized troops. See page 359 for how VDV are used in non-airborne roles. Troops sufficiently confident for air assault have many uses.
Moving into Donbas stresses defenders leaving other avenues of attack with fewer resources. The size of Ukraine makes rapid "fire brigade" reinforcement operations difficult. The best Ukrainian units deployed in the east matter less when they can be fixed by Russian forces and prevented from operating elsewhere. Russia doesn't need command of the air to disrupt Ukrainian units on the march nor need it destroy them to delay and render them ineffective.
Donbass is historically Russophilic and will be easily reintegrated after Kyiv is defeated:
Russian EW is effective. Russian forces can tolerate occasional GPS and GLONASS jamming because other means exist to spot targets. UAS video feeds can be compared with photographs for "visual" target spotting. Defenders and NATO generally should invest heavily in not merely large but enormous and rapidly evolving drone fleets. (Superseded systems remain useful as decoys and to swarm enemy defensive systems.)
See page 375 for spotting methods:
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals ... artles.pdf
While units can move, fixed targets cannot and any fixed resistance be lavishly bombarded. Smoke etc don't interfere with artillery shwacking a designated grid square.
Russian Airborne commanders will rightly want to put their modernized forces to work. Unlike ground operations constrained by terrain airborne targets aren't predictable. Airborne forces are extremely vulnerable to MANPADS, flak and everything else so they must generally assault less-defended areas then fight to their targets. They may drop behind Ukrainian units previously found and fixed by ground assault then link with advancing mechanized troops. See page 359 for how VDV are used in non-airborne roles. Troops sufficiently confident for air assault have many uses.
Moving into Donbas stresses defenders leaving other avenues of attack with fewer resources. The size of Ukraine makes rapid "fire brigade" reinforcement operations difficult. The best Ukrainian units deployed in the east matter less when they can be fixed by Russian forces and prevented from operating elsewhere. Russia doesn't need command of the air to disrupt Ukrainian units on the march nor need it destroy them to delay and render them ineffective.
Donbass is historically Russophilic and will be easily reintegrated after Kyiv is defeated:
Russian EW is effective. Russian forces can tolerate occasional GPS and GLONASS jamming because other means exist to spot targets. UAS video feeds can be compared with photographs for "visual" target spotting. Defenders and NATO generally should invest heavily in not merely large but enormous and rapidly evolving drone fleets. (Superseded systems remain useful as decoys and to swarm enemy defensive systems.)
Hm. So the US, EU and UK have all announced their first round of sanctions. Obviously a lot of coordination here as all three are doing essentially the same thing:
- hitting a few Russian banks
- hitting Duma representatives
- hitting some high profile Russians
- threatening to eliminate the ability for Russia to sell debt on EU/US/UK financial markets.
- hitting a few Russian banks
- hitting Duma representatives
- hitting some high profile Russians
- threatening to eliminate the ability for Russia to sell debt on EU/US/UK financial markets.
Weaksauce to begin with, but to be as expected. Russia has room to backpedal if they so chose to. The West has been pretty clear that these sanctions are just the top page of the book they can throw at them.
Is it the right move? I think they should have done much more, considering that Russia intends to build bases on Ukrainian land:
https://www.rt.com/russia/550221-plans- ... ary-bases/
Champions League final scheduled for May could be moved out of St. Petersburg.
Not a huge deal but significant. I think Putin can throw away future Olympics and World Cups too.
Then again, it's the IOC and FIFA so you never know. Lets see if UEFA has some stones.
Not a huge deal but significant. I think Putin can throw away future Olympics and World Cups too.
Then again, it's the IOC and FIFA so you never know. Lets see if UEFA has some stones.
You drunk too much of Dmitri Simes' Kool Aid and forgot to take a look at the map. "What's left of Ukraine" is almost the entire country. The occupied territory is small, the border is fortified and all targets are well known. Russians are sitting ducks in there. It is the north border that's the main threat.
Anyway. It's not about Ukraine and Putin's wet dreams. It's about Pommern, Schlesien and Ostpreußen.
F1 racing fans are calling for a cancelation of the Russian Grand Prix as well.
Trump calls Putin's move genius.
Says Putin recognizing those provinces as independent and going in as peacekeeper is genius, we could use that in our Southern border.
Says Putin recognizing those provinces as independent and going in as peacekeeper is genius, we could use that in our Southern border.
Given Putin's "ethnic territory" theory or whatever, wouldn't this be more of a justification for ceding Texas and Florida to Mexico and Cuba respectively.
Wait, is this an option?
I think this is more like UK becomes US state for a while, then in say 2291 or something cedes from the US, and in 2314 to 2322 gets invaded by the US with the ridiculous justification being both that the US originated with UK colonies and that UK had been a state recently.
There's a lot of history in Europe including the "Rus'" having been ruled out of Kiev until the Mongol invasion.
edit: in so much that there's any coherence to this it's basically the idea that Russia/Belarus/Ukraine are one people who had been split by evil foreign influence all along. I think I vaguely recall some nods to that notion even in my school history classes spin on the Mongol invasion. I guess the fall of USSR fits into that picture just fine as another instance of the imperial greatness being split.
Honestly the overarching thing about Russia is that when there's say some communist revolution or fall of the communism, the underlying serious problem (e.g. imperialism or secret police having excessive powers) are worsened within a decade.
The USSR derived everything from imperialism to KGB to "Ivan The Terrible" recreation by Stalin to peasants not having freedom of movement till 1969, from the economics "axioms" and marxism, but in my opinion all of that had absolutely fuck all to do with the economic system (other than the economic system being more of a symptom), and the revolution itself in many ways quickly became counter revolutionary as everything good was backpedaled on. Likewise the fall of USSR was backpedaled all the way to KGB-o-cracy.
There's a lot of history in Europe including the "Rus'" having been ruled out of Kiev until the Mongol invasion.
edit: in so much that there's any coherence to this it's basically the idea that Russia/Belarus/Ukraine are one people who had been split by evil foreign influence all along. I think I vaguely recall some nods to that notion even in my school history classes spin on the Mongol invasion. I guess the fall of USSR fits into that picture just fine as another instance of the imperial greatness being split.
Honestly the overarching thing about Russia is that when there's say some communist revolution or fall of the communism, the underlying serious problem (e.g. imperialism or secret police having excessive powers) are worsened within a decade.
The USSR derived everything from imperialism to KGB to "Ivan The Terrible" recreation by Stalin to peasants not having freedom of movement till 1969, from the economics "axioms" and marxism, but in my opinion all of that had absolutely fuck all to do with the economic system (other than the economic system being more of a symptom), and the revolution itself in many ways quickly became counter revolutionary as everything good was backpedaled on. Likewise the fall of USSR was backpedaled all the way to KGB-o-cracy.
I'm in, but can we annex British Columbia while we're at it?
But if figures Trump thinks Putin's a genius. He loves him some authoritarianism.
After Germany's earlier weakness their actual concrete actions seem more substantial than anyone else.
I'd rather have seen everybody go to maximal sanctions right away and then agree to relax them when the Russians go home.
I'm no diplomat but to me this gradual escalation just encourages Putin to escalate to his level of discomfort/annoyance.
I'm no diplomat but to me this gradual escalation just encourages Putin to escalate to his level of discomfort/annoyance.
I'd hope that there's a lot more clarity through back channels about what sanctions will happen at what point. None of these should come as a surprise to Russia. But there are good reasons not to make those public, particularly in the event that Russia backs down. No need to reveal to everyone what potential sanctions Europe and the US would have been willing to deploy.
From my perspective Putin seems to be taking a page out of Hitler’s Playbook. Didn’t Hitler invade Czech Sudetenland under the pretext of protecting ethnic Germans? It seems so obvious and yet Putin and his Dina seem to be fine with buddying up with Hitler even with the intense hatred Russians have for him.
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews has some worthwhile OSINT content including before/after satellite pics.
Trump was correct. Putin is no fool and will probably succeed. Morality is cute but strategic thinking gets shit done.
Trump was correct. Putin is no fool and will probably succeed. Morality is cute but strategic thinking gets shit done.
If you want to talk about "buddying up with Hitler" the Azov Battalion would be a good place to start
.Always appreciate your posts. You have a remarkable ability to get straight to the point and cut out the bullshit even when you write long replies.
I'm really not convinced that would be a good idea if your goal is to actually deescalate and get out of this without a large shooting war, rather than just wanting to punish Putin.
Trying to out-escalate Russia seems reasonably likely to just put Putin in a corner where he feels like he has no alternative but a full, open attack. It can also be important in situations like this to keep the other side as the clear aggressor.
Edit: Now, that depends on the initial sanctions just being the first round, and them continuing to ratchet up. There's obviously a fine line here between that approach, and just being so weak that Putin is fine with it.