Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.
- Thread starter Slothur the Hasty
- Start date
Reading through news posts I came across this CNN articletalking a pontoon bridge being constructed 4km close to the Ukraine border.
Before everybody panics,
Perhaps this is really part of the excercise and unrelated to invasion plans.
On the other hand, I am honestly shocked how close Kiev is to the Belarus border. Driving through this area would place an army right at the vicinity of Kiev approximately 40km away. Perfect for deep striking shock and awe tactics.
Now I understand why the intelligence community is so alert about these training activities.
Before everybody panics,
- this is the radiological no-man land of Chernobyl
- This is seriously in the middle of nowhere far away from any infrastructure
- Temperatures in Kiev have been well above zero, there is no frozen soil or snow
- Seriously, this area is totally undeveloped, marshy and full of rivers
Perhaps this is really part of the excercise and unrelated to invasion plans.
On the other hand, I am honestly shocked how close Kiev is to the Belarus border. Driving through this area would place an army right at the vicinity of Kiev approximately 40km away. Perfect for deep striking shock and awe tactics.
Now I understand why the intelligence community is so alert about these training activities.
Assaulting Kiev would be a whole different category than encroaching in the east where all those Russian sympathizers live.
But it is the only way to get a forced peace treaty that delivers the goods that Putin wants.
His army stirring up mud and blowing up farmhouses in the Donbass will not get him political concessions from Ukraine. Okay taking Charkiv would be significant, but I don't see it as critical for Ukraine to fold political resistance.
Putin certainly cannot take the whole of Ukraine, end even less can his troops occupy it. His plan must be to force a favourable peace treaty through quick action and then to leave.
Also, do not forget that the Ukraine still has not mobilized it's army. Across the Donbass region, troops are of course in a readied state. But the rest of the country is deeply susceptible to quick and deep strikes.
Reports of clashes in Donbass between Ukrainian and separatist forces, including possible artillery fire and civilian casualties.
U.S. intelligence believes the invasion has been delayed a few days for the end of the Olympics and a meeting of European leaders over the weekend.
U.S. intelligence believes the invasion has been delayed a few days for the end of the Olympics and a meeting of European leaders over the weekend.
So Luhansk rebels are now claiming that they were fired upon by mortars and machine guns. Ukraine state officials of course promptly denied everything and said that they were instead fired upon by howitzers.
Seriously? Is that all?
This is seriously weak sauce. Come on Putin! The peanut gallery demands more.
You need dead bodies and wailing women to even register on the propagand-o-meter.
Seriously? Is that all?
This is seriously weak sauce. Come on Putin! The peanut gallery demands more.
You need dead bodies and wailing women to even register on the propagand-o-meter.
Yeah I'm sure it has. It's iMminEnT.
But the US government pinky promised the war would start earlier today so...
So Luhansk rebels are now claiming that they were fired upon by mortars and machine guns. Ukraine state officials of course promptly denied everything and said that they were instead fired upon by howitzers.
Seriously? Is that all?
This is seriously weak sauce. Come on Putin! The peanut gallery demands more.
You need dead bodies and wailing women to even register on the propagand-o-meter.
The Russians need to come up with some new material and not this same old shit. I wonder if they'll remember to change the village name from Mainila to something else in their official reports.
Oh come on
Putin, you need to do some QA on your employees. They aren't even trying. This is performance art, you gotta give it some effort.
Look, the Duma schtick was definitely at least a grade B or A- performance. But this? :facepalm:
The whole Desinformation dance and counter intel from USA, UK and NATO sure is doing a number on Russian propaganda efforts.
I really do wonder when will Russia just say "oh sod it" and drop all pretense and just attack.
After all, as Lavrov has said it, Russia is not planning an invasion of Ukraine (to take an occupy territory) and that they shit on sanctions and don't care about them.
The part that they are not saying is that they are just preparing a policing action like NATO did it in Yugoslavia...
Oh, and just in, Russia is expelling US Diplomats/Ambassadors? WTF?
I really do wonder when will Russia just say "oh sod it" and drop all pretense and just attack.
After all, as Lavrov has said it, Russia is not planning an invasion of Ukraine (to take an occupy territory) and that they shit on sanctions and don't care about them.
The part that they are not saying is that they are just preparing a policing action like NATO did it in Yugoslavia...
Oh, and just in, Russia is expelling US Diplomats/Ambassadors? WTF?
I was listening to a foreign war correspondent the other day saying this was one of the reasons Ukraine has been very reluctant to say there's any imminent invasion. Because if they say it enough, Russia just might feel compelled to do so. So by downplaying it, they're giving Russia more opportunity to get to diplomatic solutions, if there are any to be had.
Oh come on
Putin, you need to do some QA on your employees. They aren't even trying. This is performance art, you gotta give it some effort.
Look, the Duma schtick was definitely at least a grade B or A- performance. But this? :facepalm:
Of course it's performance art. It's the fig leaf of claimed atrocities that Putin needs to "justify" stealing Donbas. To "protect civilians."
Oh come on
Putin, you need to do some QA on your employees. They aren't even trying. This is performance art, you gotta give it some effort.
Look, the Duma schtick was definitely at least a grade B or A- performance. But this? :facepalm:
Of course it's performance art. It's the fig leaf of claimed atrocities that Putin needs to "justify" stealing Donbas. To "protect civilians."
Talking about performance art:
Russia has published their reply to NATOs response on the original Russian demands letter from December. Of course a Russian newspaper spills the beans. It is an entertaining repeat of the previous comedic demands. Comedy gets ruined by
Grading: C
Author can't decide on genre and it reads very dryly with way too many threatening phrases for general public consumption. Grade got upgraded from D- for the innovative use of military-technical measures as a euphemism for invasion, war, death and destruction.
Next up:
The UN assembly where Russia will perform a drama bemoaning the attrocities committed by Ukraine. Promises to be highly entertaining and to set the stage for the next performance art displays on the weekend.
So Luhansk rebels are now claiming that they were fired upon by mortars and machine guns. Ukraine state officials of course promptly denied everything and said that they were instead fired upon by howitzers.
Seriously? Is that all?
This is seriously weak sauce. Come on Putin! The peanut gallery demands more.
You need dead bodies and wailing women to even register on the propagand-o-meter.
Expect the Russians to “discover” mass graves and other “evidence” of genocide over the next few days.
So Luhansk rebels are now claiming that they were fired upon by mortars and machine guns. Ukraine state officials of course promptly denied everything and said that they were instead fired upon by howitzers.
Seriously? Is that all?
This is seriously weak sauce. Come on Putin! The peanut gallery demands more.
You need dead bodies and wailing women to even register on the propagand-o-meter.
Expect the Russians to “discover” mass graves and other “evidence” of genocide over the next few days.
Establishing shot -- drone footage of guy walking his dog in the woods
Cut to, camera looking over his shoulder, dog finds something
Cut to dog's collar-cam, it it a hand sticking out of the ground
Cut back to drone, showing some well known landmarks
Cut back to guy, he's leaning over to pet the dog. He is surprised!
Cut to collar-cam, dog is digging
Cut to camera which was under the ground the whole time, shows dog dutifully digging it up
I think most of the exclusion zone is fine, especially if you're not sticking around for too long, don't touch metal objects or kick up dust. There are tons of videos on Youtube of people doing tours or role playing STALKERs etc.
It ends at containment where NATO ends. Were you unaware of Hungary and Czechoslovakia? No NATO intervention meant the Russians undermined their system at no cost to NATO.
What happens outside NATO is, just like last time, not worth NATO engagement because, just like last time, it's not NATO.
If Putin pulled a Stalin and Holomodored Ukraine a second time that is not worth nuclear war for the very simple strategic reason (only strategy matters or should be considered because that's how one wins conflicts) that it's not NATO. NATO expansionist moderns tend to confuse things because they're unstudied. The Kremlin OTOH do their homework and lived under the containment which helped defeat their Soviet Union.
If NATO hold the line then containment could take a century to work but there is plenty of time. Noobs think everything urgent due to modern attention spans. Strategists know to plan for permanent competition.
IMO kicking Russia out of Swift and a complete trade embargo (including US wheat because feeding the enemy is strategically degenerate) would be well worth war.
There are many worse things than wars on strategically exploitable terms. Containment ties up fewer forces freeing more for the war over Taiwan. Strategic context is everything.
Atmospheric testing validated fighting on a hot zone before most Arsians were born. It birthed modern NBC doctrine and spawned all the classic armored personnel carrier systems, mobile decon etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/worl ... lling.html
It's turning uncomfortably hot.
I sort of agree with m0nckywrench that this will end up a strategic 'victory' for NATO if NATO & Europe can keep their resolve and sanction Russia into the Siberian mud.
It's turning uncomfortably hot.
I sort of agree with m0nckywrench that this will end up a strategic 'victory' for NATO if NATO & Europe can keep their resolve and sanction Russia into the Siberian mud.
Fuck me, they're actually going to do this, aren't they? Despite weeks of being publicly called out for their bullshit schemes to manufacture a casus belli, they're just going to go ahead and do it anyways.
Currently, everything looks like it. And I called it on Tuesday due to the remarks made by Putin during the press conference with the German chancellor.
What that will mean in the end and how it will go down is an entirely different question.
Heavy artillery barrages continuing in Luhansk.
Internet connectivity and mobile phone service in Luhansk has been disabled.
Mobile internet reportedly back up. Continuing psych warfare to keep people on edge or a test run for what's next?
https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/14 ... G1VKKSUOXA
https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/14 ... G1VKKSUOXA
Its mega ultra imminent, the scheduled war for Wed was re-scheduled because of the Olympics and not upsetting the sponsors and China. Next week for sure.
Our of curiosity, what are you going to do to save face if hostilities commence?
Its the internet, faceless people using handles. Why would I worry about saving face. I am not the one yelling at the top of my lungs every day that invasion imminent right after this scheduled commercial every day. Biden better hope Russia invades Ukraine or he is going to end up with egg on his face as the crazy old uncle.
The UN needs to change its charter so there is no such thing as a veto, or AT LEAST parties to a military conflict are not allowed to exercise one.
The radiation is down quite a lot from 35 years ago and was never at a level to compare to being shot at while invading your neighbor's country.
I hope there's somebody there to shoot them, or blow up their bridge while they're in the middle of it.
Putin drags Europe to the brink of war while making impossible demands, then backs down having expended much and gained nothing in the face of transatlantic solidarity, thus affirming the value of US diplomatic leadership and military capability, and the diplomatic and military power of NATO and the EU as a whole, and *Biden* is going to be the one with egg on his face?
:facepalm: for fucks sake; the entire point of screaming about Russian plans is to get Russia to change those plans so that maybe Russia doesn't invade Ukraine. If Russia doesn't invade, Biden comes out looking like a saint. At this point, hostilities are in the propaganda stages, and Biden's win state is Russia deciding to back down and stop the buildup.
Which makes not invading Ukraine a loss state for Putin. But invading is also a loss state. I'm not sure Putin recognizes that.
What invading does for Putin:
Pluses
1. establishes him as not the guy that (finally) lost Ukraine to the west (see below)
2. is a big show of patriotism for Russia and greater Slavdom.
3. puts Ukraine in the subservient role he wants them in
4. enables future depredations of that country
5. creates friction between Germany and other western democracies
Minuses
6. strengthens the argument for NATO increasing strength esp. in former soviet countries
7. cements the idea of Russia as the enemy in the minds of most Ukrainians for another 3 generations
8. potentially ties up the Russian army in an occupation
9. with well armed insurgents armed by neighboring NATO countries
10. prompts an even stricter trade controls on Russia
Point 10 can be extremely damaging:
US trade is pretty small potatoes for them but other western countries might also tighten controls. NATO countries account for a large share of Russia's total exports.
This depends on what you mean by "loss state". The reality is that not invading is only a loss state for Putin if you define "loss" as preventing Biden from achieving a win state. Honestly, not invading is probably a win state for him too, after all, it means he got to jerk the west by a chain at little cost to himself. Of course, with all the various internal pressures he is dealing with, that might not be enough of a victory for him to be happy with so he might go ahead and do the stupid thing anyway. But, in reality, not invading is a win state for everyone.
Calling out means nothing. The Soviets would not have cared either. Putin understands some things weak plebshit Westerner psychology does not like to admit. Impotent spectator butthurt does not constrain him.
The Coalition buildup before Desert Storm was done with impunity. So is this buildup. Understanding the complex of situations conferring impunity on a major operation is a task for strategic thinkers. The Russian armed forces are far from perfect but leaderships does take military education seriously. Their culture that gets in the way of US-style NCO corps professionalization but that doesn't mean they can't win battles and wars.
Except he knows he is NOT dragging Europe to the brink of war and so do European strategists. Europe isn't going to war for Ukraine because Europe needs peace more than it needs Ukraine, end of story. NATO lacks impunity.
NATO can play about to a point while not risking home turf. So can Russia. Ukraine is not Poland or the Baltics. Containment contains, it does not seize territory. Ukraine is expendable and may be ceded.
Putin is completely, coldly and from a strategic POV admirably rational. He is served by real experts (not just Gerasimov) and the NeoSoviet forces have reformed since the bloody embarrassment of Chechnya (which was a political embarrassment but a strategic victory).
Of course there is risk but the West is weak and Putin knows the fall of Ukraine will not make Europe permanently halt trade. It traded with Stalin after all.
Russia may choose to invade before Ukraine can make it too costly.
You keep confusing 2022 with 1960.
NATO and Warsaw Pact weren't about fighting each other no matter what the grunts and the brass were told. NATO and Warsaw Pact were about keeping Europeans from starting another slaughter.
Russia is not the Soviet Union. Russia is just an ordinary Third World country and the current crisis is not about Russia. It is about Germany and Poland.
Ukraine is in Europe. Thus, should Russia go to war with Ukraine, there is war in Europe.
Except if Europe continues to support Ukraine with aid and weapons against Russian occupiers, "accidents" happen. Neither Europe nor the US has shown any inclination that they'll discontinue support for Ukraine, or any inclination that if Russia puts a toe one inch over the wrong line that there won't be an escalation.
And if he comes out of this having not invaded and having not received any concessions (which the West and Ukraine seem increasingly unlikely to provide), he's the one that looks the fool. He's the one that's backed himself into a conflict with an increasingly well prepared adversary with the sure consequence of crippling international sanctions and damage to Russian international hard and soft power that will last generations.