Don’t read too much into Xbox One’s million day-one sales, either

Worldwide launch numbers don’t say anything about long-term sales.

Kyle Orland – Nov 25, 2013 10:42 am | 108

Credit: Kyle Orland

When Microsoft announced “more than one million consoles sold through worldwide in less than 24 hours” after the Xbox One’s Friday launch, we were tempted to just copy and paste our article on the PS4’s own million-unit first day, replacing specific nouns and details where appropriate. We eventually thought better of that bit of self-plagiarism, but our analysis of Microsoft’s big first day is basically unchanged from our take on Sony’s launch: don’t read too much into it.

Sure, Microsoft having “the biggest launch in Xbox history” is better for the company than not having the biggest launch in Xbox history. But “Xbox history” only covers two console launches, the last of which was a full eight years ago, when the overall market for game consoles in general was smaller. Having the strongest Xbox launch ever is a pretty low bar to clear.

Remember, too, that both the original Xbox and the Xbox 360 had staggered launches, hitting North American stores weeks or months before Japan and Europe. Friday’s Xbox One launch was spread out across 13 countries: Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Spain, the UK, the US, and New Zealand. That makes comparing Microsoft’s “day-one” numbers across generations a little tricky; this time around, for instance, data from Chart-Track suggests that the UK was responsible for about 150,000 of the Xbox One sales over the launch weekend.

One might be inclined to credit Sony with an initial “win” in the console sales fight; after all, the company sold one million PS4 systems in North America alone rather than in 13 countries. This comparison is also problematic, though, because both new consoles appear constrained more by supply and distribution than by aggregate demand.

Microsoft likely could have sold all one million consoles that it produced for Friday’s launch in North America alone. Similarly, Sony probably could have sold two million units on its North American launch day if it had the production capacity. We’ll never know for sure which console would have seen more concrete demand given functionally limitless launch-day supplies, but considering the massive retailer waiting lists and auction house markups, it’s safe to say both console makers weren’t able to satisfy everyone who wanted a system on day one. Any consoles that Microsoft and Sony put on store shelves through Christmas don’t seem likely to stay there long.

Not that it really matters in the long run. Almost every console sees a launch window sellout after months of marketing hype and years of pent-up demand for new hardware. Some of those systems go on to dominate the market for years afterward, while others quickly fade to obscurity or also-ran status in the months following the post-launch honeymoon. A single day of sales data for either console, no matter how impressive in raw numbers, isn’t enough to predict which system will be selling better in even a few months’ time.

The only thing we can really say with confidence after the record-setting launches for both the PS4 and the Xbox One is that huge numbers of people remain interested in traditional, TV-based console gaming. In recent years, there’s been plenty of talk about how Facebook games, smartphones, and even the rise of Steam have tilted the gaming balance away from traditional consoles; in addition, system-level updates to existing consoles are thought to have lessened the need for new hardware in the living room.

Despite all that, at least two million people were willing to put down hundreds of dollars to be among the first people to upgrade their aging console hardware over the last two weeks. We’ll see how those launch-day numbers hold up over the long slog of the new console generation, but this month’s launches make it clear that console gaming as a concept isn’t going away anytime soon.