Gaming

Leaked document points to $299 “Xbox 720” for 2013 (updated)

Microsoft takedown request suggests leak could be genuine.

Kyle Orland – Jun 18, 2012 9:22 am | 132

Sketches of a supposed "Kinect Glasses" system from a 2012 Microsoft document leak, which remain unrealized despite the "2013" planning date in the corner.

UPDATE: The original document, which had been posted to sharing site scribd, was taken down over the weekend “at the request of Covington & Burling LLP,” a major IP law firm that represents Microsoft. While the move doesn’t positively confirm that the document is genuine, it does heavily suggest that Microsoft is taking action to suppress confidential internal information.

ORIGINAL STORY: Some fans and observers have expressed disappointment that Microsoft didn’t even bother to mention the follow-up to the Xbox 360 at this year’s E3. Those people should be much less disappointed by a newly leaked planning document, which details an “Xbox 720” that will include an improved Kinect, a head-mounted “glasses” display, and a major investment in cloud gaming.

The 56-page document, which started circulating widely this morning (and has since been taken down, see update above), purportedly represents a road map for the future of the Xbox platform through 2015. The document seems to date back to a mid-2010 internal planning meeting, and is focused on how Microsoft will sell the next Xbox’s new features to consumers, developers and other relevant parties. Microsoft is supposedly targeting a 2013 holiday season launch for the system in a $299 bundle with new Kinect hardware (more on that below), and plans to sell 100 million units during the console’s ten-year lifecycle.

(It’s important to note that we haven’t been able to prove the authenticity of this document, or source it directly to anyone inside Microsoft. We discuss whether the information in this document can be trusted further below.)

The “Xbox 720” described in the planning document will be six to eight times more powerful than the Xbox 360 (depending on where you look in the document). A vague “snapshot” of the Yukon architecture for the system shows a core application architecture featuring six to eight 2Ghz ARM/x86 cores, with two additional ARM/x86 cores powering the system OS and three PowerPC cores handling backward-compatibility functions. The document strongly suggests that this base hardware will be available in multiple configurations with different feature sets, with the architecture “designed to be scalable in frequency/number of cores,” and a “modular design to facilitate SKU updates later in lifecycle.”

Purported system architecture for the “Xbox 720,” according to the leaked document.

The improved hardware will allow for “true 1080p and full 3D” output, along with flexible resizing and compositing, according to the document. The new hardware will also allow for low-powered “always on” mode, which will enable features such as a “whole home DVR” that can record shows in the background and then stream them to other devices. For game storage, the “Xbox 720” will reportedly include a Blu-ray disc drive as well as both internal Flash storage and a hard disk drive, the document says. For Internet connectivity, both WiMax and HSDPA (3G) coverage are included.

Kinect V2, “Fortaleza” glasses and cloud gaming

The document describes Microsoft rolling out the full feature set of the new Xbox 720 slowly, starting with the 2013 launch of the system and Kinect version 2. The new Kinect is referred to as an “incremental” improvement over the current hardware, and will reportedly be able to process gameplay from up to four players concurrently using dedicated hardware processing for more detailed skeletal tracking. Other improvements to the hardware include a higher quality RGB camera, improved voice recognition, and recognition of a 3D playspace that is “closer, wider, deeper” than the existing Kinect. Gamers will be able to play seated or standing without rearranging their living rooms, according to the marketing pitch.

By 2014, the planning document sees Microsoft following Google into the hands-free, head-mounted display space with a product that is referred to as both “Kinect Glasses” and “Fortaleza Glasses” at different points. The “breakthrough heads-up, hands-free” devices will “deliver ambient experiences” and provide “seamless integration of the digital world with the physical world.” Through Xbox Live, the glasses will be able to provide “real time information on people, places and objects.” A sketch of the concept shows a holographic cowboy hovering in front of the TV screen as glasses-equipped players view it from all angles.

A sketch from the document showing four players using the improved, second-generation Kinect hardware.

By 2015, the Xbox 720 experience will evolve yet again, according to the roadmap, with Microsoft embracing cloud gaming in a big way. Using a cloud rendering platform and microconsole, the document stresses that consumers will “never need to upgrade hardware again” to always have access to the “latest and greatest” gaming and Xbox Live entertainment experiences “any time, any where, any screen.” A sketch shows a woman bringing up content from a rack of cloud servers on her tablet with a snap of her fingers.

The document also features some early speculation on Microsoft’s hardware competition, predicting that Sony will release its PlayStation 4 in the 2013 holiday season for around $399, while the “Wii2” (which had yet to be officially named in mid-2010) will release in holiday 2012 at a $249 price point.

Can it be real?

As with any anonymously leaked document on the Internet, there are major questions about whether this planning document can be trusted as genuine. Yes, it does seem rather elaborate for someone to go to the trouble of faking, but other systems have seen hoaxes at least as elaborate; remember the infamous Nintendo ON video that preceded the official unveiling of the Wii?

There’s some circumstantial evidence suggesting this is more than a hoax, however. First off, the document does seem to predict some Xbox 360 features that Microsoft has already announced including “SmartGlass” integration with phones and tablets, downloadable Xbox TV apps, and a Metro-inspired dashboard.

Cloud features will supposedly stream “Xbox 720” content to multiple devices by 2015.

Of course, these predictions are only prescient if the document actually comes from an internal discussion that dates back to mid-2010, as it suggests. There is some evidence that the information dates back at least a month or so: Scribd lists an upload date of May 8 for the document, before Microsoft’s E3 SmartGlass announcement. Gaming news site Nukezilla posted three stories containing excerpts and descriptions from the same document earlier in May, crediting the information to a “trusted source,” but still treating it as a rumor.

That said, there’s a lot to suggest that the system being described in this document is a little too good to be true. The feature list reads like the fevered hopes of every Microsoft fanboy, taking a kitchen-sink approach that includes every feature you could want in a home console and some you probably wouldn’t (what is HSDPA doing in a console that lives in your living room?). Then there’s the price: a $299 bundle with new Kinect hardware sounds crazy, even if Microsoft is willing to take a substantial loss on the hardware (which seems a bit unlikely, given that the document says the system should be profitable “every year of the lifecycle”). The technical wizards at Digital Foundry also point out that there are some questions about the feasibility of some of the low-power hardware being discussed.

And even if this document is the real deal, there’s some question about how useful it is for predicting the future. There’s a good chance Microsoft used this document as a sort of “wishlist” for the ideal “Xbox 720,” with features hitting the cutting room floor as practicalities rear their ugly head during development. A lot can change in the nearly two years that have passed since mid-2010, as well, so some features discussed here may already be a thing of the past. Regardless, it’s an incredible vision of what could be, and a great jumping off point for discussion of where the next generation of gaming hardware can and should go.

Kyle Orland Senior Gaming Editor

Kyle Orland has been the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica since 2012, writing primarily about the business, tech, and culture behind video games. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He once wrote a whole book about Minesweeper.

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